Professor Sally Wood, University of Melbourne, Australia
Modelling Individual Personality Effects Over Time: A Bayesian Approach
Individuals who believe performance is determined by innate and therefore fixed traits are much more likely to exhibit sustained periods of failing performance than individuals with a more incremental perspective. Besides for providing evidence for this insight, this talk is of interest for at least three reasons: (1) From a psychological, but also educational perspective it addresses the long standing challenge of how to link personality classifications to behaviour and vice versa; a core issue in theory building and validity of assessment and prediction; (2) From a statistical standpoint it addresses the challenge of flexibly modelling longitudinal and dynamic processes by assuming the regression coefficients of random effects models are generated from a time-varying mixture of an unknown but finite number of processes, where the weights attached to the number of processes are parameterised to depend upon an individual's personality classification. (3) The innovative approaches discussed in this talk offer a solution to both challenges.
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