Dr Fergus Bolger, BA, PhD

Contact Dr Fergus Bolger (email at fergus.bolger@durham.ac.uk)

Biography

Fergus is Associate Editor Journal of Economic Psychology and Software Review and Editor Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.

Research Interests

• Judgment and decision making
• Consumer behaviour and economic psychology
• Subjective probability and risk
• Judgmental forecasting and expectation formation
• Cognitive expertise
• Decision-aiding
• Cognitive development and psycholinguistics
• Effects of mood and emotion on cognition
• Causes and consequences of overconfidence
• Quantitative and qualitative research methods

Research Groups

• Behavioural Economics and Finance
• Business and Management

Publications

Books: sections

• Wright, G., Bolger, F. & Rowe, G. (2009). Expert judgment of probability and risk. In Making essential choices with scant information: front-end decision-making in major projects. Samset, K., Williams, T. & Sunnevag, K.J. Palgrave-Macmillan.

Journal papers: academic

• Bolger, F., Stranieri, A., Wright, G. & Yearwood, J. (2011). Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78(9): 1671-1680.
• Bolger, F. & Wright, G. (2011). Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from Social Psychological Research. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78(9): 1500-1513.
• Bolger, F., Pulford, B.D. & Colman, A.M. (2008). Market Entry Decisions: Effects of Absolute and Relative Confidence. Experimental Psychology 55(2): 113-120.
• Bolger, F., Önkal, D. & Gönül, M.S. (2008). Sağlık hizmetlerinin sağlanmasında tahmin üretim ve kullanımı (Forecasting in health-service provision). İktisat, İşletme ve Finans (Economics, Business and Finance) 23: 5-16.

Supervises

• Mrs Gemilat Ajisafe